Steel markets have started 2022 on a strong note in China, with confidence recovering from late 2022, although real demand remains frozen in the winter snows. Higher steel output has driven iron ore back to $130/tonne levels, while steel export offers are being hiked despite limited buying interest.

Chinese steel …

China is entering a difficult year with a number of risks. Kallanish has already laid out its base case forecasts, but it is worth reviewing some of the uncertainties at the start of the year. In this issue we highlight a few factors which could shift our forecasts over the …

China is treading a thin line between restructuring its real estate sector and ensuring economic stability, with serious consequences for steel demand. Output and export controls are meanwhile also in transition. With a range of uncertainties in the year to come, we outline our base case for the year in …

Reports on China, and especially on real estate, have focussed on the short term debt crises of a few companies. Beyond the concern over a debt crisis however, lies a longer-term trend and policy goals which pose serious problems for steel demand.

If China is able to wean itself off …