China concluded the four-day Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on 18 July. The Third Plenum of the 11th Central Committee implemented the reform and opening-up policy in 1978, which connected the country with the world again after the Mao era and …

Chinese steel demand in 2024 has disappointed, even from the fairly bleak predictions made at the end of 2023. Construction steel demand has continued to decline with little sign yet of stabilising. As a result, our mid-term forecasts for annual demand are now lower.

Our crude steel forecast revision has …

Chinese steel exports remain on track to exceed 100 million tonnes in 2024. Investigations into tax evasion have proved disappointing. China’s net steel exports have returned to the historical highs of 2015-2016.

However, the rest of Asia has changed. Capacity in Southeast Asia has increased, and demand growth has slowed. …

Chinese export markets have turned quiet with growing rumours of an investigation into exports which evade VAT. Competitive Chinese steel exports have grown in volume aggressively in global markets, with traders able to undercut official steel mill offers significantly.

If there is a crackdown on VAT evasion, what will the …