Worldsteel has revised down its 2022 global steel demand growth forecast to 0.4% on-year, giving 1.84 billion tonnes. This follows 2.7% growth in 2021. The correction is due to the impact on trade of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has created devastating effects on Ukraine, consequences for Russia and a major impact on Europe.

Furthermore, the war will also impact the steel supply chain, and steel raw materials and energy prices in 2022, worldsteel said during Thursday’s short-range outlook press conference attended by Kallanish. Other downside risks come from the continued surge in Covid-19 infections in some parts of the world, especially in China. The expected tightening of US monetary policy and rising interest rates will hurt emerging economies financially.

“In 2021, recovery from the pandemic shock turned out to be stronger than expected in many regions, despite continuing supply chain issues and Covid waves,” said worldsteel economics committee chairman Maximo Vedoya. “However, a sharper-than-anticipated deceleration in China led to lower global steel demand growth in 2021. For 2022 and 2023, the outlook is highly uncertain. The expectation of a continued and stable recovery from the pandemic has been shaken by the war in Ukraine and rising inflation.”