Supply has caught up with demand in the global long products market, with lead times shortening, although higher prices than at the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2020 will be the new normal, says the International Rebar Exporters and Producers Association (Irepas). Moreover, freight rates are still significantly elevated.

Despite the return of market equilibrium, Section 232 and EU safeguards remain in force, and protected markets will continue enjoying their positions until measures are terminated, Irepas adds in its September short-range outlook.

“The slowdown in the Far East has dealt the market a strong body blow,” Irepas comments. “The Asian markets are making adjustments, but most would say that everyone is happy over there. The Indian and Vietnamese mills are exporting, while new plants in Indonesia as well as the Japanese mills are making historic profits. South Korean mills most likely will do the same.” There is strong competition between Turkish long product exports to Asia and Asian-produced material.

EU cut-and-benders' stock levels are rising, as an increasing number of projects are being put on hold due to high prices for construction materials, including rebar. “The cut and benders are feeling a significant drop in order income and are holding their breaths to see how the EU mills will react to fewer order entries,” Irepas says. With summer holidays over, demand is however expected to recover and EU mill prices are therefore not expected to fall significantly, especially amid a lack of import alternatives.