Last week the Kallanish index for Chinese domestic rebar prices reached a new record level, at CNY 4,875/t ($744.84/t). This was the highest level ever recorded by the index, higher than the peak of CNY 4,785/t touched back in late 2017.

The latest increases of Chinese rebar were supported by strong local demand. Traders in Shanghai are expecting that demand in April will be stronger than in March, so their expectations for April prices are positive.

However, the weakening of futures late last week made traders more conservative. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange on Friday, 9 April, the rebar contract for October 2021 closed at CNY 5,068/t, CNY 47/t lower compared with Thursday and CNY 51/t lower than the previous Friday.

The overall strong performance of rebar prices in China is influencing the global longs market. Last week the International Rebar Exporters and Producers Association (Irepas) confirmed that expectations remain positive for the longs sector and that China is continuing to consume in 2021 at similar rates to last year.

Instead of exporting, China keeps importing, and its buying of billet gives the global market additional strength. Post-pandemic government stimulus programmes will meanwhile hit consumer products and construction markets soon. “It seems the current prices will hold for the next three months and that reductions will be gradual rather than sudden,” Irepas comments.