Issue 48, 2024 - This week's editorial: European industry woes worsen, scrap price bottoming debated

Europe threw up some notably bleak headlines last week, even by its own recently depressing standards, with two of its largest steelmakers, ArcelorMittal and thyssenkrupp, announcing a suspension of decarbonisation investments and huge layoffs respectively. Participants at Kallanish Green Steel Strategies reflected on the sombre realisation that the decarbonisation hype is over and the political and economic reality of its difficult implementation has kicked in. Turkish scrap prices fell further but some market participants believed they were close to bottom given the expected winter supply disruptions and yet more stimulus expectations from upcoming Chinese government meetings. Chinese hot rolled coil prices inched upwards but export demand was reported lower on-week as Vietnamese buyers had largely completed restocking.

Vietnamese buyers have bought up to 3-4 months of inventory ahead of expected anti-dumping duties targeting Chinese-origin HRC imports. Service centres are also now buying 2,000mm-width Chinese HRC, confined to Q235 and Q345 grades for structural applications, with the wider width used to circumvent potential duties.

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