Issue 45, 2024 - This week's editorial: Trump victory, China debt package evoke muted market reaction

The week everyone had been waiting for finally came and then went again, without improving prospects for most market players… unless you are a US steelmaker or oil & gas company that is. Donald Trump’s re-election as US President is likely to boost US fossil fuel investment, tighten tariffs on steel imports, and restrict global trade in general, with Chinese goods the prime target. China waited until after the election result was confirmed to announce its much-awaited economic stimulus, which turned out to be less cash injection and investment, and more local government debt relief – to shore up government finances ahead of the unpredictability of a Trump presidency. This approach has however left steel markets disappointed.

Iron ore prices came down on Friday – to $105.38/tonne cfr China for KORE 62% Fe – after rising throughout the week in the buildup to Friday’s National People’s Congress meeting. However, coking coal finished the week up over $2/t amid tighter supply and better demand prospects as Indian business returns following Diwali. Chinese steel prices held steady until Friday as the government debt package was announced only after market close. Chinese HRC export trade remained subdued amid uncertainty among buyers. For more details on this, see the Asia and Feature sections.

The latest data nevertheless revealed that China's finished steel exports continued to climb in October, reaching an eight-year high of 11.18 million tonnes – up 10% month-on-month and 41% year-on-year – amid mounting concern over Chinese dumping globally. Egypt became the latest nation to launch a trade case against Chinese steel.

» Login to read the full report or sign up for a trial.