Issue 41, 2024 - This week's editorial: Markets wait out China frenzy, Turkey restricts HRC imports

The frenzy over China’s economic stimulus measures announced in late September petered out last week, with markets balking at China’s drastically increased steel export prices. Case in point, Vietnamese HRC buyers. Observers remained unsure whether the measures were enough to stabilise the Chinese economy, although some analysts were positive on the near-term impact of stimulus. Turkey meanwhile became the latest member to join the HRC trade restriction party, implementing duties mainly targeting China.

On 8 October, the first working day following China’s National Day holiday, Chinese HRC prices hit a four-month high, but declined thereafter as sentiment cooled. Inventories gained in line with production and prices declined as a result.

Buyers awaited the result of China’s finance ministry briefing on Saturday, with some expecting concrete proposals that would boost steel demand. However, the event disappointed, with specifics being in short supply. For more, see the Asia section.

BofA Global Research and Citi nevertheless both gave positive near-term outlooks for the impact of Chinese stimulus measures, with the latter raising its three-month price target for iron ore to $120/tonne.

Turkey imposed definitive anti-dumping duties on hot rolled flat steel imports from China, India, Japan and Russia for five years, ranging from 6.1-43.31%. Although the measures are expected to limit China-origin intake, new import sources may emerge, such as Malaysia, Indonesia or Vietnam – the latter of which is under investigation in the EU and India for its increased exports. Moreover, imports from the countries levied with duty can still proceed duty-free under Turkey’s inward processing regime.

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