Issue 34, 2024 - This week's editorial: Far East, US HRC markets buck global inertia

Last week, China's hot-rolled coil fluctuated upward, benefiting from the improvement in overall sentiment. However, the tradable price in export markets did not increase significantly, and even fell slightly in some  markets. In Shanghai on Friday afternoon, 5.5x1,500mm Q235B HRC was traded at around CNY 3,180-3,200/tonne ($446-448/t), up CNY 30/t on-week. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the most-traded October 2024 contract for HRC lost CNY 28/t from Thursday but gained CNY 58/t on-week to CNY 3,219/t.

The slight increase in steel market demand and the decline in HRC inventory have effectively driven the recovery of domestic HRC prices from a four-year low. However, due to high production and weak manufacturing industries, market concerns have not improved significantly.

Domestic growth has indeed driven up most export prices. To Turkey, base HRC offers rebounded to over $500/t cfr, while SAE 1006 HRC was offered $15-20/t higher for October shipment. 

However, buyers paused their purchases, causing the tradable level in some areas to stabilise and even drop slightly. 

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