Issue 07, 2024 - This week's editorial: Analysts maintain 2024 iron ore forecast stability, confirm long- term downtrend

BMI Research has maintained its 2024 iron ore price forecast at an annual average of $120/ tonne, as price resilience continues from positive sentiment over Chinese stimulus hopes.According to Kallanish price series, the Kore 62% Fe index stood on average close to $120/t both in 2022 and 2023.

That said, continued weakness in the Chinese property sector, which has been weighing on overall economic growth, is likely to cap iron ore price growth in the coming months, with prices remaining sensitive to stimulus announcements, the research house says in a note.

On the supply side, BMI notes that major iron ore miners announced relatively stable production guidance for 2024, which will work to limit the upside for iron ore prices along with the Chinese government's regulation of futures markets.

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