Worldsteel has revised down its 2024 global steel demand forecast significantly, now expecting a 0.9% on-year decline to 1.75 billion tonnes, amid prolonged manufacturing sector and housing construction weakness. The previous projection was for 1.7% growth.

The association now anticipates a notable decline in demand in China and most major developed economies in 2024. India is however expected to maintain its strong growth momentum. Most other major developing economies should witness a demand rebound, recovering from the slowdown experienced in 2022-2023.

“2024 has been a difficult year for global steel demand as the global manufacturing sector continued to grapple with persistent headwinds such as declining household purchasing power, aggressive monetary tightening, and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. The ongoing weakness in housing construction, which is driven by tight financing conditions and high costs, has further contributed to the sluggish demand for steel,” Martin Theuringer, German Steel Association managing director and worldsteel economics committee chair, says in a note sent to Kallanish.

Ongoing Chinese real estate sector woes will slash demand in the country by 3% this year, while EU27 plus UK and USMCA demand are seen down 1.5% and 0.9% respectively. However, Indian demand is projected to rise 8%.

Global demand is expected to finally rebound in 2025 following three years of contraction, rising 1.2% on-year to 1.77 billion tonnes. However, this depends on the progress made in the stabilisation of China’s real estate sector, effectiveness of interest rate adjustments in spurring private consumption and business investment, and the trajectory of infrastructure spending dedicated to decarbonisation and digital transformation, worldsteel concludes.