In the US domestic market, scrap suppliers seem to be bullish for March trading after two disappointing months. Most mills, however, remaining pessimistic, thinking scrap prices are not likely to recover in the near term amid weak order books and competitive import prices for sheet.

One US sheet mill tells Kallanish: “I believe export demand will be the key in the direction of domestic scrap prices. It has been strong so far in February, but if it reverses, scrap prices will no longer have support in the US domestic market unless the sheet market recovers.”

Another mill source say they find an upward trend unlikely and thinks sideways movement would be the best-case scenario.

Almost all suppliers, however, think prices will increase, specifically for obsolete grades.

A domestic scrap supplier says: “A significant amount has gone to export markets, such as Turkey, Mexico and Asia, and harsh winter conditions and a high number of Covid infections have hit inflow. I am expecting obsolete scrap prices to increase at least by $20/gross ton.”

While there are diverging expectations for prime grade scrap pricing, most market participants think domestic mill demand will determine the direction of prime prices.

On the West Coast, US-origin containerised HMS 1&2 80:20 prices have reached $483/tonne cfr Taiwan amid strong demand.

On the East Coast, scrap prices in Turkey are seen to have stabilised on the latest bookings. Although prices continued to record sharp rises at the beginning of last week, the latest bookings for premium HMS 1&2 80:20 from the Baltic and US remain at $503-506/t cfr Turkey.

A Turkish mill bought US-origin HMS 1&2 85:15 at $509/t and bonus grade at $528/t cfr on Friday. The buyer however says it paid a $22/t premium over HMS 1&2 80:20 for bonus grade. Another mill in southern Turkey is heard to have booked US-origin HMS 1&2 90:10 at $509/t cfr. The latest Baltic-origin bookings for HMS 1&2 80:20 stand at $503/t and $505/t cfr respectively, meanwhile.