Current global stainless steel scrap market sentiment is mixed and scrap prices could hold stable in the near future, Kallanish heard from participants at this week’s BIR World Recycling Convention in Singapore.

Demand for stainless finished steel is particularly weak in Europe due to the recession in Germany, while Chinese demand is lower than expected, said Omar Al Sharif, director at Sharif Metals Group. Stainless steel recyclers are facing a difficult environment as European mills struggle for new orders and imports of slab and nickel pig iron are significant. Sales did not rebound after the summer holiday – “even for October, many mills were talking down their scrap requirements,” he noted.

The forthcoming US presidential election and anticipated US interest rate cuts have led to uncertain market conditions for US stainless recyclers. Meanwhile, US exports of recycled stainless steel fell 30% on-year to 212,000 tonnes in January-July, due in part to Indian consumers turning to semis instead.

During the third quarter, Taiwanese mills’ demand for stainless steel scrap was stable but competition from nickel pig iron depressed prices. In the same period, South Korea’s stainless steel scrap demand was healthy amid furnace maintenance completions. This is despite an inflow of hot stainless coil from China where domestic supply is outstripping demand.

Japan’s stainless scrap demand for domestic consumption was steady and exports fell slightly from earlier months. “So while the picture for stainless steel is not entirely negative, it can be described at best as mixed,” Al Sharif summarised.

However, the superalloys market was robust, with aerospace, defence and oil/gas combined bolstering demand. “Strong markets are reported for INCO 718 and IN625, although Boeing’s production delays have pushed aircraft material purchases into 2025,” he continued. While shipping costs during Q3 were slightly lower than in Q2, prevailing geopolitical tensions continued to keep rates high for freight of superalloy materials and nickel. However, supply chain disruption is said to have eased and a tentative deal has put an end to port strikes on the US East Coast.

Meanwhile, the outlook for stainless scrap in Asia will see steady demand and stable pricing, according to Vegas Yang, chief executive of Taiwan-based HSKU Raw Materials. As nickel costs in 304 and 316 stainless have hovered at around $11,000/t for the past 18 months, he believes the scrap nickel discount would recover to 75-80% in the near term. When stainless steel scrap demand strengthens, the scrap nickel discount rate will move closer to 100%, reflecting the discount versus buying nickel diminishing.

Global production of stainless steel melted from scrap totalled 58mt last year, according to the World Stainless Steel Association. “And looking further into 2026 with the carbon tax credits that have been implemented and will probably be enforced by European borders, it's quite possible that scrap discounts will recover back to the long-term average of 80%,” Yang noted.

On the other hand, the oversupply of nickel units in Indonesia, which now accounts for 55% of the world's total nickel units, will continue to depress nickel prices, he concluded.