Indian hot and cold rolled coil activity remains dull in the European market amid ongoing Indian mill maintenance shutdowns in the April-June quarter, sources tell Kallanish.

Despite weak demand and limited offers, prices have remained elevated in the export and domestic markets due to maintenance shutdown-related supply shortages and restocking ahead of monsoons.

Market sources also note low demand and persisting EU safeguard duty quota challenges as some other factors for the weak sentiment. A source expects EU safeguard quota measures will likely be extended beyond their 30 June expiry. Another trader notes 1 October is the next-available customs clearance date for Indian shipments arriving in the EU now.

According to EU TARIC data, the EU’s second-quarter safeguard quota for HRC originating from India has a remaining balance of 49,317 tonnes with 1,810t still awaiting allocation as of 29 April.

Last week, the remaining balance stood at 39,157t, with 808t awaiting allocation. The rise in balance is likely due to some Q1 quota being transferred to Q2 in recent days, while Q4 2023 quota was transferred to Q1 2024.

In the European market, no new India-origin HRC offers were heard this week. However, mills’ price expectations remained unchanged on-week at around $650-660/t cfr Antwerp, or $600/t fob India for S235 grade, for May/June shipment.

Some major Indian mills are nevertheless expected to come back to the export market in the first week of May, sources say.

Sources note the bid-offer price gap is around $40/t, as European buyers are seeking $615-620/t cfr.

Comparatively, Korean offers were heard at closer to European domestic prices, at around €630/t ($674.7/t) cfr, while Japanese offers were heard at $630/t cfr.

No new CRC initial offers heard this week, similar to the HRC market. Last week, CRC quotes were at $760-770/t cfr Antwerp, or $710-720/t fob India for DC01 grade, May/June shipment.

No new offers were heard in the Gulf Cooperation Council for the second consecutive week. The last heard initial Indian-origin SAE1006 grade HRC offers were at $600-610/t cfr Jebel Ali, or $570-575/t fob India, for May/June delivery.

In the Vietnamese market, India-origin HRC initial offers were heard at $565-575/t cfr Ho Chi Minh City, or $550/t fob India, for re-rolling SAE1006 grade, May/June shipment. However, one source notes Vietnamese buyers would likely opt for Chinese-origin imports instead due to lower offer prices of $500/t fob China.

In the South Asian market, no new offers were heard this week. Last week, initial India-origin HRC offer prices were heard at $580-590/t cfr Chittagong port, Bangladesh, for 10,000-15,000t of HR, CR and tube making grades, for April/May delivery. Similar offers were heard for Nepal, delivered up to the Indian border.

Similarly, no new offers were heard in the African market. Last week, offers were heard at around $640-650/t cfr Kenya, or $570-575/t fob India, for 10,000-15,000t, for a mix of CR grade and pipe making ST37 grades. Similar initial offers were heard for Tanzania and Djibouti.