Russian hot rolled coil export prices are tracking the general downtrend in major export destinations, challenged by competition from Asian suppliers in Russia’s remaining export outlets, Kallanish observes.

After offers peaked at around $600/tonne fob Black/Baltic Sea in very late September/early October, they have been slowly descending, reaching $560-570/t fob Black Sea last week. This week, indications are already expected to be circling $550-560/t fob, but there are no firm offers from Russian suppliers. They are having to contend with much lower Asian-origin offers, amid China's pricing meltdown, with Chinese offers at around the same level but on a cfr basis, traders say.

Russian HRC offer indications do adjust down in accordance with the geography: the longer the voyage, the lower the fob prices. As such, Turkish mills are expecting to receive offers not exceeding $600/t cfr this week – netting back to around $560/t fob. Middle East and North African buyers were receiving indicative offers at around $575-580/t cfr, for larger quantities and with longer lead times, netting back to around $525-530/t fob. India had offers at $580-590/t cfr, netting back to around the same as offers to MENA.

But none of the buyers were heard negotiating purchases, either due to prices being too high, or as a self-sanctioning measure, traders say.

Turkey is expected to book some volumes, provided they are offered with relatively short lead times and fitting prices, traders add. Turkish re-rollers and processors booked vast quantities of Asian material in the past two weeks, and are well provided for first-quarter arrivals, but December/early-January deliveries are still being considered.

Turkish buyers are expected to be bargaining hard, aware of Russian material facing tough competition from Asia and a strict sanctions regime. But Russian mills are likely to oblige also, traders add, and offer concessions, especially for large volumes.