Nickel prices have gained in recent weeks after the incoming administration of Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte launched investigations into environmental compliance at mining firms. With more miners declaring they have already met standards, prices may have already peaked however, Kallanish notes.

Duterte’s new mining minister Regina Lopez launched a review of all mines almost as soon as she took her position at the end of June. Two small mines operated by Benquet Corp. Nickel Mines and Zambales Diversified Metals Corp. have already been suspended.

Fears that the investigations could hit larger miners appear to be overblown however. The Chamber of Mines of the Philippines says 21 of 40 operating mines have already received their ISO 14001 certification. Nickel Asia Corp., which accounts for around 40% of national nickel output, says it is already fully compliant with the required standards.

As the short term boost to nickel prices fades some analysts suggest prices could shrink back into the $9,000s per tonne range. Macquarie however notes that the market has entered a period of undersupply, and price could average $12,000/t next year and reach $15,000/t by 2020.