The Mexican steel sector is seen improving its main indicators on-year in 2023, according to national steel association Canacero.

Apparent steel consumption (ASC) should rise 2-3% y-o-y from 25 million tonnes in 2022. Meanwhile, annual crude steel production and demand in 2023 will depend mostly on the global economic and political environment, the association says.

“We consider the 2023 outlook for the steel sector quite complicated due to various political issues in the world, which can have a significant impact on our country,” Canacero president David Gutiérrez Muguerza said during the association’s annual meeting held on Tuesday in Monterrey.

“In volume, if we consider imports and that we can compensate some [imports] with national production, we think that we could come out ahead, but in price, because the steel industry is ruled by international prices, we see that there could be an impact with everything that is happening," he added.

Steel output in 2022 should reach 19mt, which will be slightly down compared to the pre-Covid level of 20.2mt in 2018, Kallanish notes.

Meanwhile, Mexico is expected to end this year with almost 5.1mt of finished steel exports, 24% more y-o-y, while imports should be in line with the 2021 level of 11.7mt.

Muguerza is optimistic the Mexican steel industry can reduce its 6.6mt trade deficit in the short term.

"We believe the recent investments in Mexico, such as Ternium and ArcelorMittal’s new hot rolling mills, which are focused on being self-sufficient, will help us to substitute imports and thereby strengthen the domestic market, where we see great potential for consumption continuing to grow,” observed Muguerza.

Mexican industry could also take advantage of nearshoring and improve exports to the North American market.

“We have always been a strategic partner of the US. Mexico does not displace the American industry; on the contrary, we integrate and complement it. As a productive sector, we must continue promoting the development of regional value chains, which allow us to create the conditions to continue strengthening North America as the world's most competitive area," the Canacero president concluded.