Seaborne iron ore prices fell below $100/tonne on Tuesday. This is a new low for 2024 and also the lowest price since May last year.

The Kallanish KORE 62% Fe index and KORE 65% Fe index slumped respectively by $4.82/t and $4.9/t to $97.82/dry metric tonne cfr Qingdao and $113.25/dmt cfr. The KORE 58% Fe index, meanwhile, was $4.71/t lower at $85.21/dmt cfr. On public platforms, 170,000 tonnes of Carajas Fines were booked at $114.7/t for shipment from 26 July to 4 August.

On the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE), the most-traded September 2024 iron ore contract declined by CNY 8.5/t ($1.17/t) to CNY 769/t ($106.04/t). On the Singapore Exchange, August 62% Fe futures and 65% Fe futures settled $2.62/t and $2.76/t lower, respectively, at $99.27/t and $114.3/t. The same contract for 58% Fe futures lost $2.72/t to $86.25/t.

Scrap prices rebounded, while billet values moved lower. 6mm+ heavy scrap delivered to mills in the Yangtze River Delta rose by CNY 10/t to CNY 2,565/t. Tangshan billet, meanwhile, lost CNY 30/t to CNY 3,120/t.

The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee convened on 30 July to discuss the economic outlook for the second half of the year. The meeting highlighted that domestic effective demand remains insufficient, leading to uneven economic performance. Despite these challenges, the government remains confident in achieving its GDP growth target of 5% for this year.

This optimism is being bolstered by active fiscal policies, the accelerated issuance of special bonds, and initiatives promoting large-scale equipment renewal. The National Development and Reform Commission estimates these equipment renewal efforts could stimulate approximately CNY 3 trillion in demand.

Despite these measures, the steel market continues to face challenges. Vietnam has launched an anti-dumping probe this week against Chinese hot rolled coil imports, which has impacted market expectations for steel export volumes this year. The potential decline in exports could exacerbate the domestic supply-demand imbalance. Shen Bin, chairman of China Shagang Group, also emphasised at an internal company meeting that the oversupply in the Chinese steel market is expected to persist in the second half of the year.