Indian rebar prices in the secondary market continue to decline, dropping by INR 500-700/tonne ($6-8) on-week, notes Kallanish.

Prices for Fe500D grade rebar, sized at 12-25mm, are reported at INR 46,500-48,000/t ($555-575) across cities, marking a five-month low last seen in February.

With monsoons intensifying nationwide since last week, construction activity has slowed, adversely affecting rebar demand and prices.

Amid the demand slowdown, there has been intense price negotiation between mills and their distribution channels, inform market participants.

Major, primary mills have guaranteed adequate material availability, turning it into a buyers' market. Rebar offers from these mills have already witnessed a decline of INR 1,700-2,000/t ($20-24) over the past month, with prices heard at INR 55,000-55,500/t ($660-665) for Fe550D grade.

Indian sellers are anticipating positive price movement only after the revised budget is published. Following the recent general election and the formation of a new coalition government in June, India's revised 2025 fiscal year (FY25) budget will be announced by the end of July.

Indian steel companies are optimistic about huge capital expenditure plans focused on infrastructure and manufacturing. "New budget announcements scheduled for late July will determine government spending on infrastructure development and sector regulations, which may impact rebar demand," says a rebar manufacturer based in Raipur.

The interim FY25 budget, announced in February before the elections, allocated INR 11.1 lakh crore ($13 billion) for infrastructure, an 11% increase over the previous year, amounting to 3.4% of projected GDP for FY25.

Looking ahead, rebar prices may potentially rise post-budget announcement, especially in the second half of August during the restocking season for buyers.