The Russian invasion of Ukraine has created uncertainty for Indian hot rolled offers, with mills not indicating prices and only reacting to enquiries. For the second consecutive week, mills have refrained from offering exports, sources inform Kallanish.

HRC prices this week are assessed at $870-880/tonne fob India, equal to the most recent deals that took place last week. Quotes have been heard at above $950/t fob India but no firm confirmation has been received by sources.

“Indian mills are expected to resume floating export offers in the coming few days,” informs a senior trader from a reputed trading firm. “If India comes with high numbers, then it is highly possible that buying Chinese HRC, even with paying duties, would become a cheaper option for European buyers.”

Domestic retail offers for E250 grade HRC have surged by INR 3,000/t ($40-52) on-week to INR 69,000-70,000/t ex-Mumbai. Offers for E350 and galvanized plain sheet are pegged at INR 71,500-72,000/t ex-Mumbai and INR 77,500-78,000/t ex-Mumbai, respectively.

“The retail market for HRC is seen majorly surging this week because of the positive sentiment building up for exports,” says a domestic trader.

Indian mills have also refrained from offering HRC to Vietnam and other Southeast Asian nations. No firm offers were noted this week.

“Mills are currently not interested to offer to any region … They are currently waiting for more clarity on this Ukraine-Russian war,” informs a trader active in Vietnam. “Prices could go up to a high level, but again, too much of a hike would impact the existing markets of GCC and Vietnam, and might open the doors to competitors.”

Kallanish heard a deal for pipemaking grade HRC to Oman at $875-880/t fob India, equating to $912/t cfr Sohar, for April shipment, made under a long-term contract. However, apart from this deal, no firm offers were floated to the GCC region.

“There are no firm offers from India to the GCC,” says a trader based in United Arab Emirates. “India has become reactive, not proactively indicating offers but only responding to enquiries originating from Italy and other European nations.”

In Europe, there was a rumour circulating of a HRC deal concluded by an Indian mill at $1,020-1,025/t cfr Antwerp last week, but this was not confirmed by the seller.

Amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine, India is seen as an alternative supplier to fill the gap left by missing CIS material. As of 1 March, India had exhausted 72,877 tonnes of the total quota of 166,028t allocated by the EU for March-quarter Indian-origin HRC imports. Moreover, the full 167,872t quota is available for the June quarter.

Considering the potential demand from Europe and Turkey on the one hand, and downward pricing pressure from China on the other, Indian mills will aim for a balancing act by hiking prices but remaining competitive.