Owing to strong domestic realisations, lower bids from importers and downward global sentiment, Indian mills are seen pushing hot rolled coil in the domestic market over exports. Seasonal demand coupled with supply shortages has led offers to surge in the domestic market, Kallanish notes.

Indian-origin 2.5mm+ E250 grade HRC offers in India have surged by INR 1,800-2,000/tonne ($24-27/t) ex-Mumbai. JSW Steel’s 2.5mm+ E250 grade HRC offers were noted at INR 71,300/t ($957.44/t) ex-Mumbai on Wednesday. AMNS India’s 2.5mm+ E250 grade HRC offers was meanwhile heard at INR 70,000/t ($940/t) ex-Mumbai.

“The mills majorly hiked their offers owing to supply shortages and a marginal increase in seasonal demand,” says a senior Mumbai-based trader. “We are not seeing any surprisingly high demand or high stocking of inventories in the domestic market as interpreted by some traders. Mills are expected to bring down offers towards November-end or early December, as the hike is not demand-driven. The current hike by mills is merely a hype they have created to pull up sentiment in the market. However, despite high offers, many of them [mills] are offering a good discount to their customers.”

Indian-origin 2mm+ SAE grade HRC offers to Vietnam are noted at $915-920/t cfr Ho Chi Minh City, which is unworkable. Prices have remained mostly unchanged from last week due to subdued demand in Vietnam. Buyers’ expectations, however, are heard mostly at below $880-885/t cfr Ho Chi Minh City. No deals were heard this week.

Indian mills are offering 2mm+ SAE grade HRC at $865-870/t fob Indian east coast, and freight to Vietnam in the spot market is noted at $40-45/t.

“I’m not seeing much of trade happening because of the Diwali festival,” says a senior trader active in the ASEAN region. “Sentiments are muted, buyers’ expectations are down. We hope to see some recovery post-holidays.”

Offers to United Arab Emirates and neighbouring countries decreased by $5-10/t on-week to $915-920/t cfr Jebel Ali for December shipments, but these are unworkable. No deal has been heard taking place this week. Offers for pipe and tube grade HRC material in UAE were heard at $900-905/t cfr Jebel Ali. Indian mills are offering 2mm+ SAE grade HRC at $865-870/t fob Indian west coast and spot freight to UAE is noted at $50-55/t.

“Buyers in the Middle East have stocked their inventories till January-February 2022,” says a senior Middle East-based trader. “They are in no rush to book any orders now. Mills and traders from India are seen less active in the global market owing to the festival and strong domestic demand. If Indian mills want to be in the race, then definitely they need to consider decreasing their offers in the export market.”

Owing to exhausted quotas, Indian mills are not offering to Europe. However, a few buyers were heard bidding at below $950/t cfr Europe, which Indian mills find too low.