Owing to a downtrend in global hot rolled coil sentiment, coupled with China’s extremely low-priced export offers, Indian mills are expected to revise their offers to match the global market’s expectations.

Indian domestic 2.5mm+ E250 grade HRC offers have remained stable this week. JSW Steel’s 2.5mm+ E250 grade HRC retail offers were noted at INR 71,300/tonne ($959.98/t) ex-Mumbai on Wednesday. AMNS India’s 2.5mm+ E250 grade HRC retail offers clocked at INR 70,000/t ($942/t) ex-Mumbai.

“The market is silent post-holidays; we are not seeing much buying. Sentiment is down because of the plunging global market. We expect a price correction by INR 500-700/t late this week or early next week,” says a senior Mumbai-based trader. “We barely see a price revision on an on-week basis, as it usually happens on-month. However, owing to downward sentiment, mills might revise their offers.”

Low offers from China, at $820-840/t, have created havoc in the global market, Kallanish notes. Indian-origin 2mm+ SAE grade HRC offers to Vietnam are noted at $910/t cfr Ho Chi Minh City, which is unworkable. Buyers’ expectations are below $850, owing to which Indian mills are believed to be revising their offers. Currently, India is offering at $860-865/t fob east coast. A big Indian mill will be shipping 25,000 tonnes of HRC as a part of the second shipment of a contract due in November at $870-880/t cfr Ho Chi Minh City.

“The Vietnam market has fallen owing to low offers from Chinese traders,” says a senior trader active in the ASEAN region. “No Indian mills are offering now because of the downward trend. But in the longer run, mills will have to revise their offers in the export market. Also, the market in Vietnam has become very volatile and confusing … Today, the offers from China were heard lowest at $815/t cfr Vietnam.”

Offers to United Arab Emirates and neighbouring countries were decreased by $5-10/t on-week to $905-910/t cfr Jebel Ali for January shipments, against buyers’ bids below $880/t cfr. An enquiry was heard for 25,000t of SAE 1006 2.5mm+ HRC by a UAE-based buyer, while Indian mills were offering at $910/t cfr Jebel Ali. The deal is not confirmed yet, as the buyer is negotiating for below $890/t cfr Jebel Ali.

“UAE-based buyers are booked till end-March, and they are in no hurry to conclude this deal. The market is falling in UAE and Southeast Asia, owing to which they might postpone their buying,” says a senior Middle East-based trader.

No new enquiry was floated from the European Union. “India expects to begin offering HRC to the EU after December for the April quarter,” says an Indian trader handling the European region.