Over recent weeks European traders and sources have confirmed that their domestic market has received competitive hot rolled coil offers mainly from Russia and India.

Sources say Indian suppliers are heard to be offering October HRC shipments at somewhat below €900/tonne ($1,061) cfr southern Europe, Kallanish notes.

Buyers are likely to calculate the need to pay the 25% safeguard measure on top of this price by the time the material reaches Europe, but these offers are nevertheless attracting some interest. Indian HRC quotas were exhausted rapidly in July and the same is expected to happen in early October as new quotas become available.

Even more competitive at the moment seem to be Russian offers. A trader says one mill was offering HRC at €900/t cfr southern Europe for October-November shipment from northern Russia, to which the anti-dumping duty will need to be added.

"Even with the existing AD duties on Russian HRC added, most of the mills are competitive in today's market,” the trader opines. “Russian suppliers are currently hungry for orders as the new export taxes imposed by the local government have significantly reduced their order books. We calculated, nevertheless, that after paying the export taxes, Russian mills are still making a potential $300/t profit on HRC sales."