Chinese steel export volumes in April were little changed month-on-month or year-on-year. That leaves year-to-year growth in export volumes continuing to shrink as predicted, Kallanish notes.

In April, China exported 6.327 million tonnes of steel, according to the General Administration of Customs. That was -2.3% lower than April 2018 and almost unchanged from 6.236mt in March. Over January-April China exported 23.351mt of steel, up 8.3% y-o-y. That was slower than the 12.4% increase over the first quarter however.

So far this year, despite higher production levels, inventory levels have remained on-trend and domestic prices have been firm. As a result, mills are only making limited volumes available for export. That has not changed so far into June shipment plans and so export volumes are expected to remain at around current levels for another couple of months at least. In 2018 exports were strongest in May and June and so year-on-year change could remain negative for that period.

China’s steel import volumes meanwhile recovered slightly from their slump over February-March. In April import volumes were up 11.2% m-o-m but still down -4.3% y-o-y at 1mt. Over the first four months of the year imports were down -13.4% y-o-y at 3.896mt.