With their domestic demand impacted by the coronavirus outbreak and inventories building up, Chinese suppliers are expected to return to the export market. This is according to the committees of the International Rebar Exporters and Producers Association (Irepas). Chinese billet has already been heard offered in the Mediterranean area.

In the US, scrap exports have become difficult to rely on and containerised scrap costs have increased. Nevertheless, the $40/net ton price increase last week by a major US flat steelmaker should push up scrap prices $20/tonne in the March-buying round. If US rebar prices also go up, there could be further Turkish rebar export deals to the US, Irepas says.

Turkish shipments to the US will continue over the longer term but will not return to the same tonnages seen prior to Section 232 as Turkish mills are levied with US anti-dumping and countervailing duties.

Scrap prices are seen remaining volatile due to uncertainties and protectionism. The raw materials committee expects scrap to be rangebound in 2020 at $240-280/tonne cfr Turkey and iron ore at $75-90/t cfr China under a neutral scenario. However, there are downside risks.

Given the very tight scrap-rebar spread and demand being hampered by politics, economics and the virus, it would seem steel prices are at the bottom unless raw materials prices decline. With the EU quota window about to reopen, more material is seen being shipped to the bloc, which should help prices recover.

In the US, import volumes will continue to be small, with countries not levied with AD or CVD duties having an advantage in supplying. Section 232 tariffs are unlikely to be repealed following the upcoming US election as this would bring no political gain for either the Democrats or Republicans. There may just be a loosening or tightening of tariffs, Irepas says.

As for the coronavirus’ impact on global trade “…the best case scenario is that the world is losing business of two months, the world is losing confidence in itself… The worst scenario is that the steel industry will be hit like in 2009, as has the stock market just this past week,” Irepas said in comments read out on Tuesday at the association’s biannual meeting in Belgrade attended by Kallanish.