Global crude steel production dropped 1.5% on-year in September to 149.3 million tonnes, as surging Indian output and US growth were offset by a fall in China, Kallanish notes from worldsteel data. This represents the first decline in global output since May.

September production was also down 2% on August.

Chinese crude steel output fell 5.6% on-year in September to 82.1mt, following months of increases amid slow domestic economic growth, which resulted in higher Chinese exports. Indian output surged 18% to 11.6mt. Japanese production dropped 1.7% to 7mt but South Korean output jumped 18% to 5.5mt. Both Indian and Korean output were however down on August.

EU27 production fell again, but only by 1% to 10.6mt. This comes against a low base last year when European mills cut production amid weakening demand and surging energy costs. German, Italian, Spanish and French output all rose in September, by 2.1%, 4.4%, 5.3% and 1.3% respectively to 2.9mt, 2mt, 1.07mt and 857,000t. Output was nevertheless dragged down by Poland, Austria, Belgium, and the Netherlands, among other countries.

Compared to August, meanwhile, EU production surged 19%.

Turkish production grew 8% on-year in September to 2.89mt.

US production grew 2.6% to 6.72mt but was down versus August. Brazilian output is estimated to have fallen 5.6% on-year to 2.63mt.

Russian output is estimated to have grown 10% to 6.2mt.

Crude steel output in the 63 countries monitored by worldsteel still inched up 0.1% on-year in January-September to 1.41 billion tonnes.

Earlier this month, worldsteel revised down its 2023 global steel demand forecast to 1.8% on-year growth, compared to the 2.3% growth projected in April. High interest rates continue to stifle investment and consumption, while manufacturing continues to slow despite supply chain issues easing. Uncertainty stems from China’s structural transition phase and rising geopolitical conflicts.