Following recent bookings in all major markets after India’s export duty revocation, Indian hot rolled coil producers hiked their export offers, anticipating closing deals at higher prices. Buyers, however, do not feel these offers will sustain as the majority have already satisfied their HRC needs with longer-lead-timed, lower-priced material bookings.

According to multiple sources, Indian mills have reportedly hiked their offers for re-rollable HRC to around $640-650/tonne cfr Gulf Cooperation Council, netting back to $610-620/t fob India. This week, an Indian steel major offered SAE 1006 HRC at $645-650/t cfr GCC for a 12,000-15,000-tonne parcel; however, the deal has not been concluded.

“Indian mills have allocations for January shipments and, because of this coupled with the shorter lead delivery time premium, they are seeking that buyers pay higher for Indian material,” a trading source informs Kallanish. “Buyers, on the other side, have recently booked large quantities from other origins that have long lead, delivery times at fairly low prices and are currently not interested in paying higher.”

“If Indian mills drop their offers, then there is scope for GCC buyers to book Indian material … which I do not think Indian mills will agree to,” the source adds.

Right before the winter holidays, Indian mills have also hiked their quotes to the EU. Starting last week, Indian offers for structural grade HRC to the EU surged to $665-670/t cfr Antwerp and Spain. This hike follows a small deal for 2,000t concluded last week at $660/t cfr Italy. No deals were heard concluding at the latest Indian offers.

Meanwhile, Indian quotes to Turkey also surged to $660-665/t cfr Turkey, whereas buyers’ price ideas are noted at $630/t cfr. Offer indications to Vietnam are heard at around $620-625/t cfr Vietnam from India’s east coast, while, conversely, Vietnamese mills are offering HRC to India at $635-640/t cfr India.

In the domestic retail market, Indian mills have maintained the same price for HRC, noted at INR 53,000-54,000/t ($639.83) ex-Mumbai. However, offers to OEMs are meanwhile noted at INR 52,000-52,500/t delivered. Ex-works prices for HRC are hovering at $615-617/t. The mills have, however, hiked GP prices by INR 500/t to INR 62,000/t ex-Mumbai.

Surging Covid cases in China, coupled with weak sentiment in steel futures and winter holidays in the EU, have significantly narrowed Indian mills’ scope for achieving sales at increased prices. Sources inform that Indian mills are aware of the bearish sentiment but continue to stand strong on the quote hikes, mainly in anticipation of selling to buyers who urgently need to restock.