Battery materials industry players said Wednesday it’s unlikely the world will see 100% penetration of electric vehicles in a switch from internal combustion engine (ICE) cars.

With some countries adopting policies to ban ICE new cars and vans sales by 2035, the question on whether policy will drive the transition remains controversial. According to speakers at the Kallanish Power Materials webinar, the battery materials supply shortage is the main hurdle on achieving such targets.

Robert Mintak, ceo of Standard Lithium, says it’s a “pretty rosy scenario” to think that the supply chain will be ready 14-15 years from now. The executive warns a “false narrative” can be created by putting policies in place ahead of implementing the elements to make it successful.

“Unless there’s a massive mandate in underwritten support for the industry, I don’t see it being an achievable target,” he says. “It’s setting yourself up for failure."

“I love my EV, but I don’t think it’s possible to reach 100% electrification if it’s going to take a massive amount of materials,” adds First Cobalt ceo Trent Mell. “We are either going to have to lower the number/percentage of people that own vehicles, or we’ll have to quadruple the price of the vehicle to get there...Because there just isn’t enough material to get us to even a 30-40% penetration rate at this point in time."

Andrew Mitchell, head of nickel research at Wood Mackenzie, points out that investments into new mining supply need to happen fast to meet the development timeline of 8-10 years for nickel and other battery materials.

“Realistically, to get the stuff that goes in batteries to move us away from oil will be a monstrous challenge in the current battery chemistries scenario,” says Mitchell.  

The nickel guru sees the potential risk in setting targets, but also believes policies can help accelerate the transition.

“If you don’t have that target, you’re never going to aim for anything,” he notes.

Despite the huge supply challenges ahead of the battery and EV industry development, the webinar speakers were all optimistic on the opportunities for the sector in the so-called “new industrial revolution.”

They unanimously agreed that the move away from ICE into e-mobility cannot happen without new mining, as secondary materials supply will be important but contribution is still small.